Article by Matt Lichtenstadter
After a highly uneven, highly broken up and highly bizarre at times MLS regular season, the MLS Cup Playoffs are about to begin. 18 of the league’s 26 teams qualified, and thanks to iniquitous schedules and games played, a quick glance at the seeding ladder won’t give many good hints as to who has the best chance of hoisting the Cup on December 12. If you haven’t followed much of the regular season, or even the MLS is Back Tournament from the summer, here’s what you should look out for when you tune into these games:
Injuries/COVID-19 absences: With the choppy schedule, let alone the pandemic, teams are not going to be anywhere near full strength heading into the playoffs. LAFC may miss three key contributors, Diego Rossi, Jose Cifuentes and Diego Palacios, who have all tested positive for COVID-19 while on international duty. The MLS is Back Tournament winning Portland Timbers will be without two DP’s, Jarek Niezgoda and Sebastian Blanco who are out for the season due to injury. More than any other postseason, this one will be about who survives the war of attrition and the circumstances of the pandemic better than their opponents do. Teams that had fewer international break absences may also benefit in the compact postseason.
Home Field Advantage: Of the teams remaining in postseason contention, only a handful are allowed to have fans in the stands. But what might tip the balance in close playoff games this time around is travel. The more “home” games a team has, the more they will likely be able to rest and train. MLS has always been a league where home teams have an advantage, but home teams have had even bigger advantages this season. The Philadelphia Union didn’t lose a game at home once this season, and the Crew only lost one home game all year. LAFC played onlyeight true road games this season but only had one draw and one win in those games. Watch for teams that have more “home” games to perhaps see a slight boon in their fortunes.
Form: In a normal season, form can definitely be fallacy, but in this bizarre year, form and momentum are going to be crucial. The Philadelphia Union have been the best team in the league since the restart in August, and that will certainly carry over to the postseason particularly since as Supporter’s Shield winners, they don’t have to travel the rest of the way. Quietly, Sporting Kansas City has put together a quality run of games even though a handful were postponed and their schedule wasn’t particularly difficult. But very few teams are coming into the postseason in great form, such as Seattle, Portland, Toronto FC among others, but it’s hard to doubt their quality when they are at their best.
Who is the Favorite? With such unbalanced schedules, it’s hard to know how good teams are relative to their competition, especially since some teams have barely played each other during the regular season. But the favorites even in these unique circumstances are pretty clear: Seattle and Toronto FC are still just as talented and dangerous as they were a season ago, the Philadelphia Union won the Supporter’s Shield for a reason, and teams like Portland still have the quality and tactical nous to win important games even if shorthanded. Watch out for teams like Orlando City and Columbus, both of whom showed notable upticks this season have the potential to push at the highest level.
Who could surprise? LAFC had a rough regular season due to injuries and regression in form, and even with their potential absences and run to the Final, you wouldn’t bet entirely against them. A team like NYCFC, which hasn’t been flashy but has been effective, could be a tricky team to go up against considering their solidity. And the Colorado Rapids, who were sidelined for nearly a month due to a COVID-19 outbreak, are a bit of an unknown quantity. They can defend and counter-attack well, and could surprise any team taking them lightly.
MLS postseason tournaments are always a little wacky, and this one will be more so thanks to the unique nature of the hacked up regular season. But the one-off games that made the postseason last year so much fun are back again this year, and there are more of them now. A good preview of this tournament will be a phrase we’ve all used quite often in 2020: anything can happen.
