Gotta Have More Group Stage!: Why a Second Group Stage Would Improve the FIFA World Cup

The 2018 FIFA World Cup Group Stage has entertained the masses with relative ease and it has generated talk of having more group stage-style football. Well history has provided us with a blueprint to turn this dream into a reality. The 1974, 1978 and 1982 editions of the World Cup were played with a second group stage in either a three or four team groups. With the 2024 edition of the World Cup expanding to 48 teams, FIFA is reforming the Group Stage: 16 groups with 3 teams per group. This means that they are removing a Group Stage game in favor of a Knockout Round game. After the completion of this year’s edition of the World Cup Group Stage, FIFA should reconsider their decision and give the people what they want: more group stage. In the three editions that had a second group stage, there were memorable games and moments that went down in history. In 1974, Johan Cruyff inspired Holland to beat both Argentina and Brazil to reach the Final and revolutionized the game. In 1978, Mario Kempes scored 4 of his 6 goals in the second group stage and propelled Argentina to their first World Cup victory. In 1982, Paolo Rossi’s hat-trick against Socrates and Zico’s Brazil, in a must win game, sent Italy on their way to a third World Cup victory. In this current edition of the World Cup, the third and final Group Stage games (the ones that FIFA plan to remove for 2026) have produced drama and magical moments right up until the final moments. Portugal was pegged back in stoppage time by Iran while simultaneously Spain recused a draw against Morocco to take top spot in their group. Peru captain Paulo Guerrero scored his first World Cup goal after returning from suspension in his country’s first World Cup win since 1978. Swedden comfortably beat Mexico 3-0, which is a win that should silence Italian gripes about how they should have went to the World Cup in Sweden’s place, to finish first in their group. Meanwhile, Germany lost 2-0 to South Korea and was knocked out at the Group Stage for the first time since 1938 – a tournament where Italy won their second consecutive World Cup trophy. Finally, the Group Stage ended with a historical moment, the Fair Play rule was used for the first time to knock out Senegal from the tournament as they collect 2 more yellow cards than Japan. If people want more Group Stage games, FIFA should take advantage of the fact that the 2026 World Cup will be increasing to 48 teams by adding a second group stage. They should consider a system of 12 groups of 4 teams per group where the top 2 teams in each group would qualify to a second group stage containing 8 groups with 3 teams per group (see figure 1). Each group would contain at least one first placed team from the first group stage. The four lowest ranked first placed teams from the first group stage would be drawn with the four top ranked teams from the first group stage. The four lowest ranked second place teams would be drawn with the 4 groups containing the two first place teams from the first group stage and the rest would be divided among the rest of the groups. Finally, the 8 teams that would finish top of their group would qualify for the Knockout Round. If that was difficult to understand, it is possible to simplify the process by creating a first group stage with 12 groups containing 4 teams per group and a second group stage with 6 groups with per 4 teams per group (see figure 2). In both group stages, the top 2 teams would qualify from each group and the Knockout Round would start following the second group stage. The possible pitfall of both systems is the increase in the total number of games played per each team. The players would have to agree to play an extra 2-3 games depending of the system. If FIFA wants to increase the number of teams then it is only fair that the number of games played per team should increase as well. More Group Stage games would encourage more attacking play and increase the average goals per game because teams would be looking for a result instead of playing for extra time or penalty kicks. The fans during this World Cup have caught a fever and the only prescription is more Group Stage.

(Figure 1 – 12x4/8x3)

(Figure 2 – 12x4/6x4)