Article by Matt Lichtenstadter
Now that the Decision Day dust has settled, it’s time to preview the four knockout round playoff matchups as the MLS Playoffs begin. While many may not be fans of the way MLS decides its Champion, or the league itself, one can’t argue that there’s no drama in these winner-take-all games to decide seasons and futures and with that comes compelling storylines and inherent drama not present anywhere else in the world. Let’s take a look at what’s coming tonight and tomorrow as another sprint to MLS Cup begins.
Toronto FC vs. Philadelphia Union: Hard to believe (or maybe not), that is Toronto FC’s first ever home playoff game. They have had their ups and downs this season, but at their best have been irresistible to watch, especially with Sebastian Giovinco leading the way. Though he hasn’t been fit for much of the stretch run, his mere presence changes every game in favor of the Reds. Even despite the injuries, he had 30 goals and assists this season, again top of the MLS charts. The problem for Toronto FC is still their defense and midfield shape, which often leaves them open and vulnerable to counter-attacks. And they’re still Toronto FC, which means that they can still pull off results like losing 2-1 to San Jose while up two men. That lingering doubt is still present, and it’s something the team has to overcome.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Union haven’t won a game in two months, and has looked patently awful recently. Their once resolute defense is now easily breached, and suddenly they look directionless in attack. Alejandro Bedoya hasn’t fundamentally altered their midfield in the ways many expected, which is concerning, and the goals just aren’t coming when they need them to. They look a lot more like Union teams of the past, rather than the Union team that was so impressive in May and June.
Due to those factors, and even considering that this is still Toronto FC, the Reds have the advantage. Even though I’d probably consider picking against them if they were playing anyone else, they have the better squad and are in better form.
LA Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: Speaking of a team in poor form, Real Salt Lake has also not won a game in two months, and has really coasted to the finish line, banking on the points they built up earlier in the season. That’s never a good sign heading into the postseason. The injury to Yura Movsisyan is a problem, and they have also scored only two goals in their last six and can’t seem to win away from home. That’s a big problem.
On the other hand, the LA Galaxy are still a mystery. At their best, they can beat anybody in the league, but that form has been rare to appear all season. Bruce Arena hasn’t put forth a consistent formation or starting XI it seems all season, which has undone what precious little balance the team had in the first place. Largely that’s come down to the midfield being pretty much a turnstile as its offered little defensive resistance in most combinations this season.
Even though this LA team has massive question marks, the team they’re playing has even more question marks than they do, which makes them the favorite at home in spite of the odds. Could RSL find a way to hold or even break this team? Yes, but in their current form, that seems unlikely.
DC United vs. Montreal Impact: One mystery is now solved, and it’s not good news for Montreal: there will be no Didier Drogba on Thursday, and it seems we’ve seen the last of him in Montreal blue, black and white. There is an argument to be made that they’ve been a better team without him in the XI all season, but there’s no denying what he can still bring to the table despite that. At their best, with Ignacio Piatti, Dominic Oduro and Matteo Mancosu leading the line, they can be fantastic to watch. At their worst, they can be in the form that has hovered over them in recent weeks. They’re also not nearly as solid at the back as they need to be, and have trouble dealing with players in the air.
DC United, until calling off the dogs against Orlando, was the league’s hottest team by far. Luciano Acosta has become the playmaker they’ve needed forever, and Patrick Mullins is right now on absolute fire. Even bench players like Lamar Neagle, Julian Buscher and others have proven to have the right touch at times during this run. But this is still DC United, which at their worst is almost unwatchable (Benny Ball), and they still have massive defensive frailties at times which can only be bailed out by some Bill Hamid heroics.
But right now, with all of the uncertainty and emotional turmoil the Impact are going through, and with DC at RFK Stadium, they have to be the favorites. Montreal can turn it around if they play at their best and their attack clicks, but they have some demons to overcome before they can do that.
Seattle Sounders vs. Sporting KC: Sporting KC, despite rough patches this season, are still quintessentially themselves; that is, a high pressing 4-3-3 team that can keep you out at the back and also put you to the sword with players like Benny Feilhaber and Dom Dwyer dominating the scene. However, this team doesn’t score as much as vintage SKC teams do, and they also aren’t nearly as strong at the back, largely because of a drop in Matt Besler’s form. But that isn’t saying much, considering they’re still a top five defensive team in the league. And, these players have been there and done that in postseason’s past, including last year’s crazy penalty shootout with Portland.
Meanwhile, the Sounders, after being totally left for dead in the middle of July, are a red-hot team with a defense that’s been improving and the gamebreakers in attack you need in the playoffs to win. Jordan Morris has backed up the hype, Nicolas Lodeiro is every bit the DP the Sounders needed, and they still have their rocks in Tyrone Mears, Ozzie Alonso, Brad Evans and Chad Marshall to clean up where necessary. There is a concern about who can score goals for the Sounders besides Morris, but maybe Cristian Roldan can be that guy. If he is, watch out, everyone else in the league.
This is probably the toughest of the knockout matches to predict, because both teams cancel each other out so well, but with the Sounders at home, and 5-2-2 without Clint Dempsey, I’d say the slightest of edges go to the Sounders.
So my predictions have the home teams winning every game, which is probably not going to happen. But that’s why the MLS playoffs are so much fun: the unexpected can easily become reality in the blink of an eye.
