Article by Matt Lichtenstadter
MLS’ playoff format is incredibly forgiving. Teams that have wretched starts are not out of the postseason chase until maybe August or September, and even then, teams clawing their way into a sixth seed isn’t all that unusual. The Seattle Sounders have the second worst record of any team in MLS from March to May but have made the last two MLS Cup Finals for instance.
Any headline that says, “could team X really miss the playoffs?” in May is therefore usually clickbait. No team is out of the playoff race until they’re pretty much mathematically eliminated from contention in September/October, and that standard is not going to change this year.
But for three teams who are closer to the basement of their conferences than the sixth seed, are there legitimate concerns for said squads that could cause their playoff fate to be in some serious jeopardy? After 11 weeks of fixtures, maybe there may be just a few, even in a league as wide open as this one.
The teams that contested the last two MLS Cups both oddly enough fall into this boat. Seattle got the better of Toronto FC 2-1 at BMO Field last Wednesday, but neither team is anywhere near what they could be or have been at their best. Both teams are dealing with a debilitating injury list that is getting no shorter and are still contending with the damage from their CCL exits at the hands of Chivas in April. Toronto FC’s weird mix of starters and reserves (complete with Michael Bradley at centerback) is 1-1-2 since the CCL exit, and though the Sounders have flashed something here or there, they still sit at the bottom of the West, level on points with the likes of San Jose and Colorado. Neither team will use injuries and/or fatigue as an excuse for their first two+ months of bad form, but even these teams can’t go without major questions being asked when things are going this sideways.
Sounders management is being pressed into spending money on a gamebreaking talent that will allow the team to compete with the NYCFC’s, Atlanta’s and LAFC’s of the world, and it seems almost certain that they will attempt to make a signing like that this summer. But before then, they still must deal with injuries (and World Cup absences) for players like Roman Torres, Nico Lodeiro, Ozzie Alonso, etc. without adequate replacements behind them. Seattle has shown remarkable resiliency in this recent stretch of start slow, but end fast seasons, but somehow this one feels different. Perhaps they have bent a little bit too far now in situations they used to only bend in.
Toronto FC are not doing much better, but their run in CCL didn’t just cost them psychologically, it cost them physically and in the table. They threw away two MLS road games against Colorado and Houston by playing USL sides while the MLS group prepared for CCL. Drew Moor and Jozy Altidore were added to the long list of injuries that included Chris Mavingaand Victor Vazquez because of the CCL run, and TFC have yet to show they can replace them as interchangeably as they once did, even though many of the parts are still the same. They have seven points, one fewer than Seattle and only two more than woeful DC United, who have only five.
TFC has 10 points to make up on sixth place New England after losing to them on the weekend, while Seattle is only behind sixth place RSL by five points. Perhaps that makes TFC’s dilemma a bit trickier, but their full-strength team is still as dominant as any in the league, and that squad hasn’t yet really had the chance to stretch its legs in MLS play. To be fair, neither has Seattle’s, but their ceiling is far lower than what TFC has and can reach.
And then there is the story of the LA Galaxy. They’re on 10 points after 10 games, only three back of sixth in the West. That shouldn’t be too worrying, right? But of these three teams, they may well be in the most trouble. Seattle has recent history to lean on when it comes to believing they can turn their predicament around. Toronto FC has the best team in league history. The Galaxy have… Zlatan. And even he is beginning to look flustered, confused and defeated during the Galaxy’s current slide, which has seen them lose four straight and somehow look worse defensively than they did last season. They look like they don’t have a plan, particularly at the back, with a mish-mash of players who either didn’t cut it last year or haven’t proven themselves this year. Even with Zlatan, and a pair of Dos Santos’, and some good attacking talent beyond them, it hasn’t been enough to soothe the frayed nerves of Galaxy fans, especially as LAFC runs riot across LA County.
The amazing 4-3 win and comeback against LAFC on March 31st feels like an eternity ago, because LAFC have rebounded and figured out what they needed to do to fix the problems exposed that afternoon. The Galaxy meanwhile have seemingly coasted on the Zlatan wave and since have only won once in six games. With both Gio and Jonathan Dos Santos in Juan Carlos Osorio’s eyes for the World Cup, and with Zlatan rumored to be off for World Cup TV duty, what can the Galaxy do to fix the mess they’re in? From May 21 until June 2, they play four games that may well define their season: at equally woeful Montreal, home to San Jose in another derby match, home to FC Dallas and then at Portland. If they haven’t picked up at least seven points by then, they could be in truly serious trouble.
The seasons for the Sounders, Galaxy and Toronto FC are by no means lost on May 14 because their starts have been poor. MLS is as forgiving as any other league on the planet in absolving teams of early sins. But they all must take advantage of the opportunities a league like this provides to fix their mistakes, get healthy, find form and/or a combination of all three, otherwise the headlines may one day actually have some truth to them.
